India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow to $280–300 billion by 2030, up from the current $120–140 billion, according to a new report released by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
The report highlights strong growth momentum across both e-retail and e-services, even as offline retail continues to expand steadily.
Offline Retail Remains Strong Amid Digital Surge
Despite the rapid expansion of online shopping, India’s offline retail sector remains robust, growing at an annual rate of 13–14% over the past four years.
BCG noted that the market is entering a phase of coexistence between online and offline retail. Multi-channel shopping is becoming the norm, with five out of every 10 offline buyers using online platforms to research products before making purchases in physical stores.
Online Shoppers to Reach 440 Million by 2030
Currently, India has around 300 million online shoppers. This number is expected to rise to 440 million by 2030. Notably, nearly 30% of online shoppers are from rural India, reflecting deeper digital penetration beyond metro cities.
The report states that India’s e-commerce ecosystem includes:
- E-retail, valued at $75–85 billion
- E-services, valued at $45–55 billion
E-services are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20–22%, while e-retail is projected to expand at 16–18% annually.
Consumer Behaviour Shifting Rapidly
Based on a survey of over 12,000 consumers across regions, the report found that buyers are seamlessly moving between screens and stores, prioritising convenience, trust, and need.
Many customers research products online and complete their purchases offline, reflecting evolving hybrid shopping habits.
Women Shoppers Trust Online Platforms More
Nearly two-thirds of women shoppers said they consider online shopping safer. The reasons cited include privacy, easy access, and the ability to shop independently at any time.
Quick Commerce and Social Commerce See Rapid Growth
The report highlights explosive growth in quick commerce, recording over 100% CAGR, making instant and top-up purchases mainstream.
Meanwhile, social and chat commerce are growing at a CAGR of 40–45%, further expanding digital retail channels.
Faster Brand Growth in Digital Era
Online brands are also scaling faster than before. The time required to reach ₹100 crore in annual revenue has reduced from around 11 years to approximately seven years, reflecting improved market access and digital adoption.
The findings underline India’s accelerating digital transformation, with e-commerce poised to play a central role in shaping the country’s retail landscape by 2030.
